New odds-maker Tammaro tabs Renegade the Derby fave – at least for now

Kevin Kerstein’s Kentucky Derby update (Coady Media/Renee Torbit photo of Renegade winning the Arkansas Derby under Irad Ortiz)

WHO WILL GO FAVORED IN KENTUCKY DERBY 152?

Oddsmaker Tammaro Discusses Wide-Open Battle for Favoritism Between Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Thursday, April 16, 2026) – Renegade is expected to be the morning-line favorite for Kentucky Derby 152, but Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro sees a wide-open race with Commandment and Further Ado forming a tightly grouped trio at the top.

“It would be foolish to ignore what’s happening in the market and the public reaction after the Arkansas Derby,” said Tammaro, who will set the Kentucky Derby morning line for the first time following the retirement of Mike Battaglia after 51 years at Churchill Downs. “Renegade has to be the favorite right now, but this isn’t a race where anyone is going to be odds-on or even close.”

Tammaro’s current projection lists Renegade at 9-2, Commandment at 5-1 and Further Ado at 6-1.

“I think Commandment is the most consistent horse in the field, and Further Ado fits right there as well,” Tammaro said. “In a typical race, you could make a case for any of the three on top. That’s what makes this Derby so competitive.”

Despite installing Renegade as the likely favorite, Tammaro acknowledged the colt’s position atop the market is far from clear-cut.

“From a pure handicapping standpoint, you can argue others have stronger credentials,” Tammaro said. “But the Derby isn’t run in a vacuum. You have to account for public perception, buzz and how the money is going to flow.”

With two weeks remaining, Tammaro emphasized how quickly that picture can change.

“This is the most fluid time of the year,” Tammaro said. “A strong work, a missed work, a good gallop and even chatter on the backside can move the market. There’s always a ‘buzz horse’ that takes more money than expected.

“You’re looking at a race where the favorite could be in that 4-1 to 9-2 range, with several others right behind him. That’s the definition of a competitive Derby.”

Entries and post positions for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will take place Saturday, April 25 between Races 3-4 on the opening day program from 2:15-2:45 p.m. ET on the Paddock Terrace (weather permitting).

PROM QUEEN TUNES UP FOR OAKS WITH FIVE-FURLONG DRILL IN 1:01.40 – Gary and Mary West’s Gulfstream Park Oaks (Grade II) winner Prom Queen continued her preparation for the $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) with a five-furlong move in 1:01.40 Thursday morning at Churchill Downs.

          Prom Queen, a two-time winner for trainer Brad Cox, breezed at 9:15 a.m. ET with Edvin Vargas in the irons. She completed an opening quarter-mile in :25.80 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.80, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols.

          “It was a solid move from her,” Cox said. “She did things very easily on her own and traveled well over the surface.”

          A homebred daughter of Quality Road out of the Tapit mare Miss Bling Bling, Prom Queen scored a convincing 2 ¾-length victory in the March 28 Gulfstream Park Oaks. 

          Friday’s work tab at Churchill Downs is expected to include Kentucky Derby contenders Commandment, Fulleffort and Further Ado. Also scheduled to work is Stark Contrast, who appears more likely to run in the American Turf (GI) instead of the Derby. Saturday’s work tab is scheduled to include Wood Memorial (GII) winnerAlbus and runner-up Right to Party.

KENTUCKY DERBY MORNING WORKS SHOW KICKS OFF 14 DAYS OF COVERAGE ON FRIDAY – The Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show presented by TwinSpires.com will return Friday with 14 consecutive days of live coverage, offering fans an exclusive look at the final preparations of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders.

Airing daily from 6:45-7:45 a.m. (all times Eastern), the one-hour program will be streamed live on the Kentucky Derby Facebook Page, YouTube and X accounts. The show will highlight the 15-minute exclusive training window from 7:15-7:30 a.m. for horses preparing for the $5 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (Grade I) and the $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI).

Hosted by Churchill Downs’ expert handicappers Joe Kristufek, Kaitlin Benson, Tony Calo and Kevin Kilroy, the show will include insight, commentary and exclusive interviews from notable figures such as the voice of the Kentucky Derby Travis Stone, former leading rider Rosie Napravnik, TwinSpires.com handicapper James Scully and Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro.

All Kentucky Derby and Oaks contenders are required to be on-site by Saturday, April 25. The show will continue through Thursday, May 1, showcasing every contender’s final training sessions leading into Kentucky Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks.

For more information, visit www.kentuckyderby.com